Posts by markdcook

The Whipsaw

The holiday weekend showed that Syria is now a political tool. Congress is to vote on the situation rather than Obama taking the lead. It has delayed the process and the market responded with a holiday rally. However this influence will diminish as time goes forward. Therefore any rallies associated with Syria will probably be short lived. The situation with Russia could have more dramatic implications than any other situation of Obama’s presidential career. Putin has demanded proof of Syria using chemical weapons. It seems that Putin is trying to draw Obama into a gun fight. The market will not
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Tape Action

As of mid-week we still had not seen a 30 point down day which means the pressure is intense. It may take a catalyst for a true selling pressure to win over the manipulators. The bonds gave a big yawn last Wednesday at the 10 Year Auction. It is one of the most benign movements seen in the backdrop of a 10 year auction. I am beginning to wonder if these auctions are losing their influences as they have had in previous months. Yes the Federal Reserve is the big buyer so therefore much of the mystery is reduced. It is
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Strong-arming Fibonacci

The entire month of July had not had a 30 point decline in the S&P futures as of Monday. We closed on the first day of July at approximately 1606. The only way that a market can act the way this July has been, is by incredible manipulation. I personally do not understand why it is so critical that the stock market be held at this all time high numbers. This is a bubble of bubbles and reminds me of the summer of 1990, just before Iraq invaded Kuwait. The market was slow, volume was light, and then a monumental
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Lowering the Volume

The beginning of our trading week was knocking on the door of 2013 highs in the S&P futures. The number of S&P contracts traded Monday represents less than 50% of normal average volume. We were into 15 days without a 30 point correction and I expected a sharp 1 to 2 day correction in the magnitude of 30 to 50 S&P points. The adage used by traders are that the current prices are floating on air with no foundation underneath. The bonds were trying to stabilize as each bear raid was met with buying on Tuesday. We were able to mount
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FOMC Prompts Highs

It is important to note that the internals of the market were weak. A large percentage of the day the tick registered minus even though we had a plus print on the S&P Futures. The light volume signifies that traders are waiting and institutions are on the sidelines. I have no doubt that the Federal Reserve is trying to maintain the recent S&P gains before the notes are released. However, the action shows a deteriorating rally which could create a vacuum on the down side. There was a presence that saved this market from a large move downward Tuesday. The early morning saw
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Crushing the Bonds

The first day of a new month generally has a buy bias but the lack of energy this afternoon indicators that the continuous buy programs of this morning are gone. The bonds are trying to gather some momentum as each rally seen over the past several weeks has been met by a  flurry of selling. They were closing the pit session nearly at the Monday’s highs, which is encouraging for a market that has been beaten so severely. We could have seen a full reversal day in progress as the early Tuesday morning saw buy programs perpetually generating higher S&P 500 prices.
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Halfway Point

Monday’s S&P 500 lows 1553.25 became a short term potential support area, but if violated on a close anytime in the near future would be monumental to a bearish environment. The breakdown area of 1595 is a paramount resistance for the short term and intermediate term. Devastation is the word that bond fund managers are using to describe their two month debacle. The bonds have corrected almost 17 full points. The bonds technically have shown no resiliency on this decline. Therefore this is a Fed induced rally that probably will not hold for any length of time. Please note that we
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Erasing Gains

Such a bizarre environment where the strength of the market appears to be invincible and then slowly the market erodes. Monday’s complacency of the bulls is giving confidence that any declines are buys. Therefore look out, this is setting up for a rip to the downside. The FOMC started Tuesday. We are seeing how he is plotting his strategy as I believe he has more and more animosity building even within his own ranks regarding his failed QE program. I mentioned that it is failed because only the stock market has had a good year while the economy languishes and real
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Profitable Advisory Trade

It is important each day to assess the energy. A particular up day should have more plus tick than minus tick. The more the progression and prices upward, the more accompanying high plus tick should occur. This was not the case Monday as rare instances reached 500 but nothing excessive even with almost a 10 point gain. Therefore this market is running on fumes and that generally precedes hard price moves downward with heavy minus tick. An important aspect of the big picture is the fact that we made a lower low in prices on the bonds for 2013 but the
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Unemployment News

On Monday, the very critical S&P price area of 1620 probed, but once again Bernanke stepped in to save the day. The importance of the number will elevate further with today’s probe. The importance of a close below 1620 now will increase in credibility once it happens. It should end this upward move as it is a clear trend reversal which is probably why the Federal Reserve is defending it so vehemently. The bonds serve as the source of funds for the Federal Reserve to purchase stocks. The early morning saw a vibrant high energy unyielding rally that provided the source
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